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Next 7 daysExtreme83%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – late January
Record year: 20252,273
Trend: +11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +8%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	90	5
2002	30	0
2003	22	0
2004	39	5
2005	25	1
2006	45	6
2007	22	0
2008	37	3
2009	50	5
2010	24	2
2011	24	1
2012	7	5
2013	29	29
2014	14	14
2015	15	15
2016	20	20
2017	12	12
2018	7	12
2019	20	40
2020	169	346
2021	212	421
2022	318	567
2023	863	1807
2024	2190	4236
2025	2273	4604
2026	819	2090

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 376.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 113
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~43.8

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~44 expected · usual 34

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~701 expected · usual 212

likely 35–1,361 · usual 0.0–552

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~30 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – mid March

Onset: mid November
Peak: late November
End: mid March

Critical windows

early November – late January
77% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +11%/10Raw: +8%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 339.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2013
29
season began 6 weeks late
2014
14
season ended 16 weeks early
2017
12
season began 8 weeks late
2020
169
5.8× the normal annual activity
season ended 22 weeks early
2021
212
7.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 11 weeks early
2022
318
11× the normal annual activity
peak 18× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2023
863
30× the normal annual activity
peak 39× stronger than normal
season ended 11 weeks early
2024
2,190
76× the normal annual activity
peak 88× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2025
2,273
78× the normal annual activity
peak 92× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 17 weeks early
2026
819
28× the normal annual activity
peak 28× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson