Balé

Next 7 daysLow3%

Peak fire period now · 0.1× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early February
Record year: 20032,889
Trend: −48%/ 10significant · on raw data: +57%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2735	259
2002	2567	599
2003	2889	746
2004	2388	605
2005	2016	467
2006	2065	468
2007	2091	458
2008	2101	453
2009	2612	570
2010	2493	584
2011	2295	528
2012	1533	1387
2013	2006	2006
2014	1631	1631
2015	1248	1248
2016	1868	1868
2017	1703	1703
2018	1337	2011
2019	1287	2557
2020	1138	2312
2021	1055	2144
2022	644	1375
2023	787	1554
2024	826	1632
2025	720	1484
2026	533	1641

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.28×

Raw data

0.97×

usual = 1×

This month: 18
Usual (median): 63
Rank: 21 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 0.97× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.28×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~18.3

Dry air (23%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon35°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~18 expected · usual 86

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~977 expected · usual 1,798

likely 677–1,780 · usual 596–3,460

Season

Ends ~8 February
Peak ~14 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – early February

Onset: early November
Peak: mid December
End: early February

Critical windows

early November – early February
82% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −48%/10Raw: +57%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2003
2,889
season ended 5 weeks early
2005
2,016
season ended 4 weeks early
2022
644
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2023
787
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2024
826
season began 4 weeks late
2025
720
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
533
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson