Wayne

Next 7 daysExtreme100%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid June – late August
Record year: 2008138
Trend: −25%/ 10significant · on raw data: +96%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	107	14
2002	95	16
2003	96	10
2004	92	10
2005	103	21
2006	94	10
2007	101	10
2008	138	41
2009	80	4
2010	110	17
2011	88	9
2012	98	97
2013	73	73
2014	103	103
2015	76	76
2016	109	109
2017	66	66
2018	52	130
2019	29	77
2020	44	84
2021	67	142
2022	61	155
2023	68	154
2024	97	195
2025	45	125
2026	166	676

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.7×

Raw data

› 26.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 10
Usual (median): 2.8
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 26.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 3.7×.

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~3.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed12°

Thu13°

Fri12°

Sat13°

Right now

early November

This week1.6

This week is more active than 84% of past years at this time

Year to date166

#1 of 26 yearsNormal: 87

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~3.4 expected · usual 0.7

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~7.8 expected · usual 5.5

likely 1.0–16 · usual 0.0–12

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~5 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – late October

Onset: mid April
Peak: early July
End: late October

Critical windows

mid June – late August
38% of annual activity
early September – mid September
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −25%/10Raw: +96%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p 0.005): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

13

2009
80
season began 5 weeks early
2013
73
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2014
103
season began 3 weeks late
2016
109
peak 1.6× stronger than normal
2017
66
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2018
52
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2019
29
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks early
2020
44
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2022
61
season began 4 weeks late
2023
68
season ended 3 weeks early
2024
97
peak 1.6× stronger than normal
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
45
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2026
166
1.8× the normal annual activity
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
season began 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Wayne

Next 7 daysExtreme100%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid June – late August
Record year: 2008138
Trend: −25%/ 10significant · on raw data: +96%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	107	14
2002	95	16
2003	96	10
2004	92	10
2005	103	21
2006	94	10
2007	101	10
2008	138	41
2009	80	4
2010	110	17
2011	88	9
2012	98	97
2013	73	73
2014	103	103
2015	76	76
2016	109	109
2017	66	66
2018	52	130
2019	29	77
2020	44	84
2021	67	142
2022	61	155
2023	68	154
2024	97	195
2025	45	125
2026	166	676

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.7×

Raw data

› 26.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 10
Usual (median): 2.8
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 26.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 3.7×.

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~3.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed12°

Thu13°

Fri12°

Sat13°

Right now

early November

This week1.6

This week is more active than 84% of past years at this time

Year to date166

#1 of 26 yearsNormal: 87

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~3.4 expected · usual 0.7

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~7.8 expected · usual 5.5

likely 1.0–16 · usual 0.0–12

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~5 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – late October

Onset: mid April
Peak: early July
End: late October

Critical windows

mid June – late August
38% of annual activity
early September – mid September
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −25%/10Raw: +96%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p 0.005): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

13

2009
80
season began 5 weeks early
2013
73
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2014
103
season began 3 weeks late
2016
109
peak 1.6× stronger than normal
2017
66
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2018
52
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2019
29
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks early
2020
44
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2022
61
season began 4 weeks late
2023
68
season ended 3 weeks early
2024
97
peak 1.6× stronger than normal
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
45
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2026
166
1.8× the normal annual activity
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
season began 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson