Washtenaw

Next 7 daysLow9%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – mid May
Record year: 201722
Trend: −1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +108%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12	1
2002	13	1
2003	12	3
2004	11	0
2005	12	2
2006	12	1
2007	12	2
2008	11	1
2009	13	3
2010	15	2
2011	12	1
2012	10	10
2013	17	17
2014	12	12
2015	7	7
2016	8	8
2017	22	22
2018	10	27
2019	4	12
2020	21	37
2021	11	31
2022	11	34
2023	13	26
2024	12	23
2025	14	29
2026	14	45

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun6°

Mon8°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri15°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.2 expected · usual 0.7

likely 0.0–2.5 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid October

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – mid May
42% of annual activity
early August – late August
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −1%/10Raw: +108%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 13.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

15

2009
13
season began 4 weeks early
2010
15
season ended 4 weeks late
2012
10
season ended 4 weeks late
2014
12
season ended 5 weeks early
2015
7
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season ended 5 weeks late
2016
8
only 0.7× the normal annual activity
2017
22
1.8× the normal annual activity
2018
10
season ended 5 weeks early
2019
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2020
21
1.7× the normal annual activity
peak 3.7× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2021
11
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 10 weeks early
2022
11
season began 3 weeks late
2023
13
season ended 21 weeks early
2024
12
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 6 weeks early
2026
14
peak 2.7× stronger than normal
season ended 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson