Van Buren

Next 7 daysLow19%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – mid May
Record year: 201223
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +98%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	13	1
2002	12	1
2003	14	1
2004	14	4
2005	20	7
2006	13	2
2007	14	2
2008	14	5
2009	12	2
2010	15	2
2011	12	1
2012	23	23
2013	15	15
2014	7	7
2015	12	12
2016	15	15
2017	14	14
2018	13	26
2019	10	23
2020	20	36
2021	11	22
2022	6	14
2023	12	25
2024	9	30
2025	21	42
2026	13	39

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Vegetation is drying out↑

Sun8°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri15°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.4 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–1.6 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid October

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – mid May
34% of annual activity
late August – mid September
19% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +98%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.42).

Unusual years

12

2005
20
1.5× the normal annual activity
2012
23
1.7× the normal annual activity
2013
15
season began 3 weeks late
2014
7
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks late
2015
12
season began 3 weeks late
2018
13
season ended 10 weeks early
2019
10
season ended 20 weeks early
2020
20
season began 3 weeks late
2022
6
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
2024
9
season began 4 weeks early
2025
21
1.6× the normal annual activity
2026
13
season began 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson