Tuscola

Next 7 daysLow5%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – early May
Record year: 201521
Trend: −3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +91%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	9	1
2002	8	0
2003	8	1
2004	7	0
2005	9	4
2006	7	0
2007	8	1
2008	8	0
2009	7	0
2010	12	4
2011	8	1
2012	8	8
2013	8	8
2014	11	11
2015	21	21
2016	19	19
2017	3	3
2018	7	18
2019	1	8
2020	7	8
2021	16	29
2022	3	11
2023	3	7
2024	10	23
2025	18	28
2026	2	8

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri14°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–2.0 · usual 0.0–0.8

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – late October

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – early May
22% of annual activity
mid July – early August
20% of annual activity
late August – early September
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −3%/10Raw: +91%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 13.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.44).

Unusual years

13

2012
8
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks late
2014
11
season ended 15 weeks early
2015
21
2.6× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 11 weeks early
2016
19
2.4× the normal annual activity
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
2017
3
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late
2018
7
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2020
7
season began 4 weeks early
2021
16
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 5 weeks early
2022
3
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 12 weeks early
2023
3
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks late
2024
10
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 8 weeks early
2025
18
2.3× the normal annual activity
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
2026
2
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson