St. Joseph

Next 7 daysLow15%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early March – late May
Record year: 201324
Trend: −16%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +89%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12	0
2002	11	0
2003	15	2
2004	20	6
2005	16	4
2006	10	0
2007	13	1
2008	18	5
2009	11	1
2010	20	5
2011	12	3
2012	20	20
2013	24	24
2014	16	16
2015	15	15
2016	5	5
2017	13	13
2018	13	15
2019	4	10
2020	13	20
2021	13	42
2022	10	26
2023	6	13
2024	9	24
2025	12	26
2026	11	38

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 5.6×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 3 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.6

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun8°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri15°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.6 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.0 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–1.5 · usual 0.0–1.3

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid October

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: mid October

Critical windows

early March – late May
60% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −16%/10Raw: +89%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.07).

Unusual years

9

2012
20
season ended 14 weeks early
2013
24
1.9× the normal annual activity
season ended 12 weeks early
2014
16
season ended 11 weeks early
2015
15
season ended 11 weeks early
2016
5
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2017
13
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2018
13
season ended 9 weeks early
2019
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 26 weeks early
2023
6
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson