St. Clair

Next 7 daysModerate21%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – early September
Record year: 202475
Trend: −14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +67%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	26	0
2002	25	1
2003	25	0
2004	25	0
2005	26	2
2006	25	0
2007	26	1
2008	28	3
2009	25	1
2010	25	1
2011	25	1
2012	13	13
2013	20	20
2014	9	9
2015	10	10
2016	8	8
2017	10	10
2018	4	10
2019	3	15
2020	50	95
2021	15	35
2022	17	32
2023	39	71
2024	75	167
2025	45	96
2026	70	228

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.0
Usual (median): 0.6
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.0

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri14°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.0 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.8 expected · usual 1.3

likely 0.0–3.7 · usual 0.0–2.2

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – early October

Onset: early April
Peak: late August
End: early October

Critical windows

late June – early September
45% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −14%/10Raw: +67%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 46.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

13

2012
13
season ended 3 weeks early
2013
20
peak 1.7× stronger than normal
2014
9
peak 1.7× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks early
2016
8
season began 10 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early
2017
10
season ended 6 weeks early
2018
4
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2020
50
peak 5.7× stronger than normal
season ended 6 weeks early
2021
15
peak 1.7× stronger than normal
season ended 9 weeks late
2022
17
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks late
2023
39
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 5 weeks early
2024
75
3.0× the normal annual activity
peak 5.7× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2025
45
peak 4.3× stronger than normal
season began 12 weeks late
2026
70
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson