Shiawassee

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – early May
Record year: 202012
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +78%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	1
2002	6	0
2003	5	2
2004	6	0
2005	8	3
2006	6	0
2007	6	0
2008	6	0
2009	8	2
2010	7	0
2011	5	2
2012	6	6
2013	10	10
2014	4	4
2015	9	9
2016	11	11
2017	8	8
2018	1	5
2019	2	4
2020	12	21
2021	12	21
2022	2	6
2023	3	9
2024	3	7
2025	9	14
2026	2	12

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (13 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.7 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid October

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – early May
22% of annual activity
mid July – early August
18% of annual activity
mid March – late March
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +78%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

14

2009
8
season ended 3 weeks early
2012
6
season ended 7 weeks early
2013
10
season ended 10 weeks late
2015
9
season ended 7 weeks late
2016
11
season began 3 weeks late
2017
8
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 7 weeks late
2018
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 24 weeks early
2019
2
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2020
12
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2022
2
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2023
3
season began 7 weeks late
2024
3
season began 4 weeks late
2025
9
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
2
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson