Schoolcraft

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early May – early June
Record year: 201139
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +65%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	0
2002	4	0
2003	6	2
2004	12	6
2005	3	1
2006	6	2
2007	8	3
2008	3	1
2009	3	1
2010	30	10
2011	39	12
2012	33	33
2013	3	3
2014	8	8
2015	28	28
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	21	40
2019	9	22
2020	0	1
2021	22	48
2022	9	14
2023	0	1
2024	16	32
2025	11	19
2026	0	5

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

A dry month (23 mm)↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
Hot weather (10 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed11°

Thu11°

Fri10°

Sat13°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.6 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~24 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early August

Onset: mid April
Peak: late May
End: early August

Critical windows

early May – early June
47% of annual activity
mid July – early August
15% of annual activity
mid April – late April
13% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +65%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.12). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.85).

Unusual years

4

2010
30
season ended 15 weeks early
2012
33
season ended 10 weeks early
2021
22
season ended 9 weeks early
2025
11
season ended 10 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson