Sanilac

Next 7 daysLow19%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early August – late September
Record year: 201231
Trend: +4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +101%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	15	0
2002	14	1
2003	14	0
2004	16	2
2005	15	2
2006	13	1
2007	14	0
2008	14	2
2009	13	1
2010	15	0
2011	18	4
2012	31	31
2013	16	16
2014	13	13
2015	21	21
2016	19	19
2017	26	26
2018	24	42
2019	7	24
2020	20	32
2021	13	30
2022	11	24
2023	21	48
2024	13	30
2025	16	30
2026	18	49

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri14°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.6 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–2.0 · usual 0.0–0.6

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – early October

Onset: late March
Peak: early August
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early August – late September
38% of annual activity
early April – late April
13% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +4%/10Raw: +101%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 23.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.92).

Unusual years

13

2011
18
season ended 4 weeks late
2012
31
2.0× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks early
2014
13
season began 18 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2016
19
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks late
2017
26
1.7× the normal annual activity
2018
24
1.6× the normal annual activity
2019
7
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2020
20
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2022
11
season began 4 weeks early
2023
21
season ended 6 weeks early
2024
13
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
16
season began 3 weeks late
2026
18
season began 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson