Saginaw

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – early May
Record year: 201537
Trend: −16%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +65%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	11	1
2002	10	1
2003	16	6
2004	9	2
2005	27	11
2006	12	3
2007	13	3
2008	8	0
2009	20	7
2010	14	5
2011	9	1
2012	19	19
2013	15	15
2014	10	10
2015	37	37
2016	16	16
2017	6	6
2018	31	52
2019	7	17
2020	10	22
2021	13	29
2022	7	11
2023	2	6
2024	5	15
2025	16	28
2026	6	22

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–1.0 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid September

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: mid September

Critical windows

mid March – early May
56% of annual activity
mid July – late July
7% of annual activity
late August – late August
5% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −16%/10Raw: +65%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.6× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

9

2012
19
season ended 12 weeks early
2014
10
season ended 9 weeks early
2015
37
3.0× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks late
2017
6
season ended 13 weeks early
2018
31
season began 4 weeks late
2019
7
season ended 8 weeks early
2022
7
season ended 8 weeks late
2023
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 16 weeks early
2024
5
season ended 12 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson