Roscommon

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early September – mid October
Record year: 200435
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	4
2002	1	0
2003	1	0
2004	35	10
2005	2	1
2006	1	0
2007	1	0
2008	2	1
2009	1	1
2010	3	2
2011	6	3
2012	1	1
2013	1	1
2014	2	2
2015	6	6
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	1	2
2019	2	4
2020	4	6
2021	0	0
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	4	8
2025	7	14
2026	1	2

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
A dry month (9 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–1.1 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~27 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – early October

Onset: early April
Peak: late September
End: early October

Critical windows

early September – mid October
53% of annual activity
late March – mid April
13% of annual activity
early May – mid May
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.98). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

13

2001
7
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
2004
35
24× the normal annual activity
peak 33× stronger than normal
season began 21 weeks late
2011
6
season began 11 weeks late
2012
1
season ended 24 weeks early
2013
1
season began 31 weeks late
2014
2
season ended 23 weeks early
2015
6
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season ended 26 weeks early
2018
1
season began 27 weeks late
2019
2
season began 11 weeks late
2020
4
season began 9 weeks late
2024
4
season ended 27 weeks early
2025
7
season began 20 weeks late
2026
1
season ended 23 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson