Presque Isle

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – early June
Record year: 20186
Trend: −15%/ 10significant · on raw data: +31%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1	0
2002	1	0
2003	4	4
2004	1	2
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	1	1
2008	1	2
2009	4	3
2010	1	1
2011	1	1
2012	4	4
2013	1	1
2014	0	0
2015	2	2
2016	0	0
2017	1	1
2018	6	8
2019	1	3
2020	2	8
2021	1	2
2022	0	2
2023	1	2
2024	1	2
2025	0	1
2026	1	5

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 8 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
A dry month (20 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun5°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri12°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.3 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~12 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – early August

Onset: early March
Peak: mid July
End: early August

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – early June
37% of annual activity
late June – mid July
26% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −15%/10Raw: +31%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.21). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.07).

Unusual years

13

2003
4
3.7× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal
2009
4
3.1× the normal annual activity
peak 8.3× stronger than normal
2012
4
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 9.4× stronger than normal
2013
1
season began 17 weeks late
2015
2
1.7× the normal annual activity
2017
1
season began 19 weeks late
2018
6
5.2× the normal annual activity
peak 9.4× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
2019
1
season began 10 weeks late
2020
2
1.7× the normal annual activity
peak 6.3× stronger than normal
season began 12 weeks late
2021
1
season ended 21 weeks early
2023
1
season began 21 weeks late
2024
1
season ended 21 weeks early
2026
1
season began 25 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson