Ottawa

Next 7 daysModerate22%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – late July
Record year: 202459
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +73%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	24	0
2002	29	4
2003	25	2
2004	26	1
2005	25	0
2006	24	3
2007	25	1
2008	25	3
2009	28	3
2010	28	5
2011	25	1
2012	45	45
2013	12	12
2014	5	5
2015	19	19
2016	10	10
2017	11	11
2018	9	22
2019	17	37
2020	44	103
2021	14	26
2022	8	21
2023	52	99
2024	59	129
2025	22	54
2026	81	310

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.0
Usual (median): 0.7
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.7

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun8°

Mon10°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.7 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~2.0 expected · usual 1.1

likely 0.0–3.3 · usual 0.0–2.3

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~5 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid October

Onset: late March
Peak: early July
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – late July
21% of annual activity
early May – early June
19% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +73%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 20.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.13).

Unusual years

13

2012
45
peak 2.9× stronger than normal
2013
12
season ended 10 weeks early
2014
5
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 13 weeks early
2015
19
season began 3 weeks early
2016
10
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks early
2017
11
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks late
2018
9
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 6 weeks early
2020
44
peak 3.8× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2022
8
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 11 weeks late
2023
52
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
2024
59
2.4× the normal annual activity
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
2025
22
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks late
2026
81
3.3× the normal annual activity
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson