Otsego

Next 7 daysModerate21%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late April – late July
Record year: 202182
Trend: −9%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +30%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	20	0
2002	20	0
2003	23	3
2004	21	1
2005	19	0
2006	28	5
2007	19	0
2008	22	2
2009	22	2
2010	23	3
2011	20	1
2012	4	4
2013	7	7
2014	5	5
2015	6	6
2016	9	9
2017	5	5
2018	20	30
2019	14	34
2020	63	126
2021	82	168
2022	49	64
2023	7	9
2024	1	4
2025	42	71
2026	46	159

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.6

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu13°

Fri12°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.6 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.9 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–2.1 · usual 0.0–0.8

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – late September

Onset: late April
Peak: early May
End: late September

Critical windows

late April – late July
61% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −9%/10Raw: +30%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 23.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

14

2006
28
peak 2.7× stronger than normal
2012
4
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks early
2013
7
season ended 19 weeks early
2014
5
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early
2015
6
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 14 weeks early
2017
5
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 15 weeks late
2018
20
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 6 weeks early
2019
14
season began 3 weeks late
2020
63
3.1× the normal annual activity
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2021
82
4.1× the normal annual activity
peak 7.8× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2022
49
peak 2.9× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2023
7
season began 9 weeks late
2025
42
peak 3.7× stronger than normal
2026
46
peak 2.9× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson