Oscoda

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – late May
Record year: 201819
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +57%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	0
2002	7	3
2003	8	2
2004	5	0
2005	5	1
2006	8	3
2007	12	5
2008	12	5
2009	9	5
2010	14	7
2011	5	1
2012	1	1
2013	2	2
2014	16	16
2015	6	6
2016	2	2
2017	7	7
2018	19	21
2019	11	25
2020	3	5
2021	8	25
2022	1	1
2023	8	9
2024	10	18
2025	0	7
2026	15	37

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (12 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun5°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri12°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–1.1 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – mid September

Onset: early April
Peak: mid April
End: mid September

Critical windows

early April – late May
51% of annual activity
mid September – late September
7% of annual activity
mid July – late July
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +57%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 4.4× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.85).

Unusual years

7

2013
2
season began 21 weeks late
2016
2
season began 14 weeks late
2018
19
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early
2020
3
season began 13 weeks late
2021
8
season began 13 weeks early
season ended 20 weeks early
2023
8
season began 6 weeks early
2024
10
season ended 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson