Osceola

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid September – mid October
Record year: 202015
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +60%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	3	0
2003	3	0
2004	3	1
2005	3	0
2006	3	0
2007	3	0
2008	3	0
2009	3	1
2010	3	0
2011	3	0
2012	4	4
2013	1	1
2014	1	1
2015	5	5
2016	1	1
2017	8	8
2018	2	3
2019	1	2
2020	15	29
2021	2	5
2022	1	4
2023	7	11
2024	2	4
2025	2	3
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
A dry month (11 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.9 · usual 0.0–0.5

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~4 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – late October

Onset: early April
Peak: early October
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid September – mid October
27% of annual activity
early August – late August
21% of annual activity
early April – mid April
11% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +60%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 31.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

12

2013
1
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 23 weeks early
2014
1
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2015
5
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 31 weeks early
2016
1
season began 23 weeks late
season ended 12 weeks early
2017
8
peak 8.0× stronger than normal
season began 29 weeks late
2019
1
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 19 weeks early
2020
15
4.7× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
season began 21 weeks late
season ended 13 weeks early
2021
2
season ended 17 weeks early
2022
1
season began 33 weeks late
2023
7
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 28 weeks late
2024
2
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2025
2
season ended 31 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson