Ontonagon

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: last week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid August
Record year: 20195
Trend: −1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1	0
2002	1	0
2003	3	3
2004	1	0
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	1	0
2008	1	1
2009	1	0
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	0	0
2013	0	0
2014	1	1
2015	0	0
2016	1	1
2017	0	0
2018	0	1
2019	5	8
2020	1	1
2021	2	3
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	5	8
2025	2	2
2026	4	14

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
Hot weather (11 °C)↑
A dry month (77 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon10°

Tue11°

Wed11°

Thu10°

Fri12°

Sat13°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.4 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~10 May
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early May – early November

Onset: early May
Peak: early August
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – mid August
51% of annual activity
early May – late May
20% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −1%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.18). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

9

2003
3
3.8× the normal annual activity
peak 18× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 13 weeks early
2014
1
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 30 weeks late
2016
1
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2019
5
5.4× the normal annual activity
peak 35× stronger than normal
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2020
1
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 14 weeks early
2021
2
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 9 weeks late
2024
5
5.4× the normal annual activity
peak 35× stronger than normal
season ended 27 weeks early
2025
2
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 16 weeks early
2026
4
4.3× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
season ended 9 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson