Ogemaw

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – early May
Record year: 201513
Trend: −9%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +72%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	7	2
2004	4	3
2005	4	0
2006	7	6
2007	4	0
2008	6	3
2009	4	0
2010	4	0
2011	4	0
2012	7	7
2013	3	3
2014	0	0
2015	13	13
2016	3	3
2017	0	0
2018	5	9
2019	8	8
2020	1	2
2021	0	2
2022	3	5
2023	6	7
2024	6	11
2025	4	12
2026	16	33

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (13 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon10°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–1.0 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~15 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid March – early October

Onset: mid March
Peak: mid April
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – early May
36% of annual activity
late August – mid September
9% of annual activity
early August – mid August
5% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −9%/10Raw: +72%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.6× its earlier level (p 0.05). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

8

2012
7
season ended 11 weeks early
2013
3
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 12 weeks early
2015
13
3.3× the normal annual activity
peak 8.0× stronger than normal
season ended 21 weeks early
2016
3
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2018
5
season began 10 weeks late
2020
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 23 weeks late
2025
4
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks late
2026
16
4.1× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson