Oceana

Next 7 daysLow19%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – late September
Record year: 201232
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +87%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	16	0
2002	19	5
2003	15	3
2004	17	5
2005	14	2
2006	19	4
2007	17	3
2008	14	0
2009	16	4
2010	20	7
2011	21	3
2012	32	32
2013	13	13
2014	24	24
2015	16	16
2016	19	19
2017	27	27
2018	20	70
2019	27	49
2020	17	61
2021	13	32
2022	16	33
2023	11	27
2024	18	40
2025	17	39
2026	15	44

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 4 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.7

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu13°

Fri13°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.7 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.0 expected · usual 0.9

likely 0.0–2.3 · usual 0.0–1.5

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid October

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid August
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – late September
48% of annual activity
early May – mid May
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +87%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.74).

Unusual years

6

2012
32
1.9× the normal annual activity
2017
27
1.6× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
2018
20
season ended 8 weeks early
2019
27
1.6× the normal annual activity
peak 2.5× stronger than normal
season began 11 weeks late
2021
13
season began 13 weeks early
2023
11
only 0.7× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson