Oakland

Next 7 daysLow5%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late May
Record year: 201443
Trend: −8%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +85%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12	1
2002	11	0
2003	10	0
2004	10	0
2005	10	0
2006	12	2
2007	11	1
2008	11	2
2009	10	0
2010	10	0
2011	10	2
2012	20	20
2013	31	31
2014	43	43
2015	7	7
2016	2	2
2017	5	5
2018	2	19
2019	0	4
2020	3	15
2021	10	25
2022	5	13
2023	10	27
2024	14	22
2025	10	31
2026	11	52

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri14°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.8 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – late September

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: late September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – late May
41% of annual activity
early September – mid September
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −8%/10Raw: +85%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 25.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

15

2006
12
season ended 5 weeks late
2012
20
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2013
31
3.1× the normal annual activity
peak 5.4× stronger than normal
2014
43
4.3× the normal annual activity
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
2015
7
peak 2.2× stronger than normal
2016
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 24 weeks early
2017
5
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2018
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2020
3
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
2021
10
season ended 10 weeks early
2022
5
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2023
10
peak 3.8× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2024
14
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
10
season began 3 weeks early
2026
11
peak 2.2× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson