Newaygo

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – late June
Record year: 201319
Trend: +4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +76%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8	1
2002	7	1
2003	6	0
2004	6	0
2005	6	0
2006	8	2
2007	6	0
2008	6	0
2009	11	10
2010	6	1
2011	6	1
2012	14	14
2013	19	19
2014	8	8
2015	8	8
2016	3	3
2017	9	9
2018	15	25
2019	18	29
2020	3	7
2021	7	18
2022	12	22
2023	7	11
2024	9	20
2025	4	10
2026	9	24

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
This year is more active than normal↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu13°

Fri13°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.6 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid September

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – late June
54% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +4%/10Raw: +76%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.0× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.44).

Unusual years

12

2009
11
season began 4 weeks late
2012
14
2.0× the normal annual activity
2013
19
2.7× the normal annual activity
season ended 13 weeks early
2016
3
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks late
2017
9
season began 6 weeks late
2018
15
2.1× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks early
2019
18
2.6× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks early
2020
3
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 9 weeks late
2021
7
season ended 6 weeks early
2022
12
1.7× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
2024
9
season ended 19 weeks early
2025
4
only 0.6× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson