Muskegon

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 202118
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +66%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	0
2002	6	1
2003	4	2
2004	4	1
2005	4	0
2006	4	1
2007	4	1
2008	7	3
2009	4	3
2010	4	1
2011	4	0
2012	9	9
2013	4	4
2014	3	3
2015	3	3
2016	4	4
2017	1	1
2018	5	12
2019	3	11
2020	5	6
2021	18	34
2022	3	6
2023	7	8
2024	6	17
2025	16	33
2026	3	18

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (12 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun8°

Mon10°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.7 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~26 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – mid October

Onset: early April
Peak: late April
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
33% of annual activity
late June – mid July
17% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +66%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.1× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.44).

Unusual years

14

2008
7
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
2012
9
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
2013
4
season began 4 weeks late
2014
3
season ended 18 weeks early
2016
4
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 13 weeks early
2017
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 33 weeks late
2018
5
season began 3 weeks late
2019
3
season ended 14 weeks early
2020
5
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2021
18
4.3× the normal annual activity
peak 9.0× stronger than normal
2022
3
season began 18 weeks late
2023
7
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2024
6
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season ended 27 weeks early
2025
16
3.8× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson