Montmorency

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 202266
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +35%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	21	4
2002	4	0
2003	2	0
2004	2	1
2005	2	0
2006	6	3
2007	3	1
2008	8	6
2009	2	1
2010	3	3
2011	2	0
2012	2	2
2013	9	9
2014	3	3
2015	8	8
2016	7	7
2017	1	1
2018	0	1
2019	5	11
2020	0	0
2021	0	0
2022	66	84
2023	0	1
2024	3	11
2025	10	24
2026	0	4

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
This year is more active than normal↑
A dry month (18 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun5°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri12°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.4 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early October

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: early October

Critical windows

mid April – late May
60% of annual activity
early November – mid November
8% of annual activity
late August – early September
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +35%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.31). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.95).

Unusual years

7

2001
21
7.7× the normal annual activity
peak 13× stronger than normal
2012
2
season began 11 weeks late
2013
9
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 16 weeks late
2017
1
season began 9 weeks late
2019
5
season ended 18 weeks early
2022
66
24× the normal annual activity
peak 65× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2025
10
season began 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson