Montcalm

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – late May
Record year: 202013
Trend: +2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +84%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8	0
2002	7	0
2003	7	1
2004	6	0
2005	6	0
2006	7	1
2007	7	1
2008	7	1
2009	7	2
2010	8	3
2011	7	1
2012	10	10
2013	8	8
2014	7	7
2015	12	12
2016	7	7
2017	7	7
2018	2	10
2019	5	7
2020	13	39
2021	7	9
2022	3	11
2023	13	31
2024	10	22
2025	8	18
2026	9	29

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–1.0 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – early October

Onset: late March
Peak: early May
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid March – late May
44% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +2%/10Raw: +84%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 15.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.63).

Unusual years

11

2013
8
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
2014
7
season began 9 weeks late
2015
12
1.7× the normal annual activity
2016
7
season ended 19 weeks early
2017
7
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
2018
2
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks late
2019
5
season ended 8 weeks early
2020
13
1.9× the normal annual activity
peak 4.2× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
2022
3
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2023
13
1.9× the normal annual activity
peak 6.3× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 23 weeks early
2026
9
peak 4.9× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson