Monroe

Next 7 daysLow13%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late July – late August
Record year: 201637
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +91%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	24	3
2002	18	0
2003	21	4
2004	20	1
2005	27	10
2006	19	2
2007	24	5
2008	18	0
2009	18	1
2010	28	9
2011	18	0
2012	18	18
2013	17	17
2014	17	17
2015	31	31
2016	37	37
2017	13	13
2018	8	15
2019	12	28
2020	24	53
2021	35	83
2022	20	36
2023	16	32
2024	7	24
2025	22	48
2026	38	163

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 5.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.8
Usual (median): 0.6
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun6°

Mon8°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri15°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.1 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–2.1 · usual 0.0–0.9

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – mid October

Onset: early April
Peak: early August
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late July – late August
17% of annual activity
early May – late May
16% of annual activity
mid April – mid April
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +91%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.74).

Unusual years

14

2004
20
season began 4 weeks early
2005
27
season ended 4 weeks late
2006
19
season began 4 weeks early
2016
37
1.9× the normal annual activity
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2017
13
season ended 7 weeks late
2018
8
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early
2019
12
season ended 4 weeks early
2020
24
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2021
35
1.8× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 5 weeks early
2022
20
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks late
2023
16
season ended 5 weeks early
2024
7
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
22
season ended 5 weeks early
2026
38
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
season began 14 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson