Missaukee

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early August
Record year: 201226
Trend: −16%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +40%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	2
2002	5	0
2003	4	1
2004	6	2
2005	4	1
2006	4	0
2007	4	1
2008	4	1
2009	4	0
2010	7	3
2011	5	1
2012	26	26
2013	3	3
2014	9	9
2015	6	6
2016	3	3
2017	2	2
2018	5	7
2019	2	4
2020	3	4
2021	4	5
2022	3	6
2023	3	3
2024	18	34
2025	0	1
2026	4	12

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Fires where there usually are none

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 2.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (12 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~26 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid October

Onset: late March
Peak: late July
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – early August
23% of annual activity
mid April – mid May
22% of annual activity
early September – mid September
14% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −16%/10Raw: +40%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.4× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

12

2012
26
6.2× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal
season began 17 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2013
3
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2014
9
season ended 3 weeks early
2015
6
season ended 3 weeks late
2016
3
season ended 4 weeks early
2017
2
season began 25 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2018
5
season ended 20 weeks early
2019
2
season began 29 weeks late
2020
3
season began 18 weeks late
2021
4
season ended 4 weeks early
2023
3
season began 17 weeks late
2024
18
4.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson