Midland

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late April
Record year: 20159
Trend: −1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +73%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3	0
2002	3	0
2003	3	1
2004	3	0
2005	3	1
2006	3	0
2007	3	0
2008	3	1
2009	3	1
2010	3	0
2011	3	0
2012	0	0
2013	6	6
2014	0	0
2015	9	9
2016	2	2
2017	5	5
2018	4	6
2019	3	4
2020	3	6
2021	6	12
2022	0	1
2023	0	1
2024	5	13
2025	2	4
2026	2	8

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (13 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon10°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–1.1 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~15 March
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid March – early November

Onset: mid March
Peak: mid April
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – late April
28% of annual activity
mid July – early August
12% of annual activity
early March – mid March
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −1%/10Raw: +73%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 15.9× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

11

2013
6
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
season ended 7 weeks early
2015
9
3.2× the normal annual activity
peak 6.9× stronger than normal
season ended 9 weeks late
2016
2
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
season ended 29 weeks early
2017
5
1.8× the normal annual activity
2018
4
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
season ended 28 weeks early
2019
3
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2020
3
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 14 weeks early
2021
6
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
season ended 24 weeks early
2024
5
1.8× the normal annual activity
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
2025
2
season ended 17 weeks early
2026
2
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
season ended 28 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson