Mecosta

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – early June
Record year: 20258
Trend: +6%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +108%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	3	1
2004	4	0
2005	4	0
2006	3	1
2007	4	1
2008	4	1
2009	4	0
2010	6	2
2011	4	0
2012	0	0
2013	1	1
2014	2	2
2015	6	6
2016	6	6
2017	1	1
2018	5	8
2019	4	9
2020	4	6
2021	2	3
2022	4	6
2023	3	7
2024	6	14
2025	8	14
2026	4	13

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (12 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.6 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – early October

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – early June
52% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +6%/10Raw: +108%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 12.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

14

2010
6
1.8× the normal annual activity
2013
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 13 weeks late
season ended 12 weeks early
2014
2
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 27 weeks late
2015
6
1.7× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks early
2016
6
1.7× the normal annual activity
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2017
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 20 weeks early
2019
4
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks late
2020
4
season ended 12 weeks early
2021
2
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2022
4
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2023
3
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 20 weeks late
2024
6
1.7× the normal annual activity
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
2025
8
2.3× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2026
4
season ended 10 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson