Mason

Next 7 daysLow18%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – early May
Record year: 201753
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +51%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12	3
2002	6	0
2003	4	0
2004	6	3
2005	4	0
2006	5	1
2007	5	0
2008	6	2
2009	4	0
2010	7	3
2011	5	2
2012	10	10
2013	6	6
2014	2	2
2015	22	22
2016	5	5
2017	53	53
2018	6	14
2019	3	6
2020	4	7
2021	1	2
2022	2	7
2023	8	13
2024	20	42
2025	14	59
2026	7	25

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu13°

Fri13°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.2 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid September

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid April
End: mid September

Critical windows

mid April – early May
50% of annual activity
early August – late September
21% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +51%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 13.9× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

13

2012
10
season ended 6 weeks early
2013
6
season began 9 weeks late
2014
2
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2015
22
3.8× the normal annual activity
peak 7.5× stronger than normal
2017
53
9.2× the normal annual activity
peak 25× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2019
3
season ended 7 weeks early
2020
4
season ended 11 weeks early
2021
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 15 weeks late
season ended 12 weeks early
2022
2
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 21 weeks late
2023
8
season ended 6 weeks late
2024
20
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 8.5× stronger than normal
2025
14
2.4× the normal annual activity
peak 5.5× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2026
7
season began 11 weeks early
season ended 22 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson