Manistee

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – late May
Record year: 202117
Trend: +17%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +98%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	3	0
2004	5	2
2005	5	1
2006	6	3
2007	8	3
2008	3	0
2009	3	0
2010	6	2
2011	3	0
2012	6	6
2013	3	3
2014	3	3
2015	7	7
2016	3	3
2017	4	4
2018	0	1
2019	2	6
2020	6	9
2021	17	28
2022	7	14
2023	10	18
2024	8	12
2025	7	14
2026	6	20

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (12 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu13°

Fri13°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.1 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~15 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid March – mid October

Onset: mid March
Peak: mid April
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid March – late May
51% of annual activity
mid July – late July
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +17%/10Raw: +98%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.1× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.06).

Unusual years

9

2012
6
season ended 8 weeks late
2013
3
season ended 10 weeks early
2014
3
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2019
2
season began 22 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2020
6
season began 7 weeks late
2021
17
3.7× the normal annual activity
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
2022
7
season ended 12 weeks early
2023
10
season ended 11 weeks early
2025
7
season ended 13 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson