Macomb

Next 7 daysLow13%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early October
Record year: 2025101
Trend: −1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +41%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	16	0
2002	15	2
2003	16	0
2004	18	2
2005	15	1
2006	15	1
2007	16	0
2008	16	0
2009	16	0
2010	18	3
2011	16	0
2012	3	3
2013	4	4
2014	2	2
2015	4	4
2016	3	3
2017	8	8
2018	6	10
2019	4	9
2020	6	7
2021	9	11
2022	20	36
2023	11	22
2024	42	97
2025	101	207
2026	21	125

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 5.5×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.9
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 4 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri14°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.9 expected · usual 0.7

likely 0.0–4.2 · usual 0.0–1.0

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid October

Onset: mid April
Peak: late August
End: mid October

Critical windows

mid July – early October
60% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −1%/10Raw: +41%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 29.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.11).

Unusual years

12

2012
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 26 weeks early
2013
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 15 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks late
2015
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks early
2016
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2017
8
season ended 7 weeks late
2019
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2020
6
season ended 8 weeks early
2022
20
peak 7.5× stronger than normal
season began 20 weeks late
2023
11
peak 2.0× stronger than normal
season ended 10 weeks early
2024
42
2.8× the normal annual activity
peak 5.1× stronger than normal
season began 17 weeks late
2025
101
6.6× the normal annual activity
peak 8.2× stronger than normal
2026
21
peak 2.4× stronger than normal
season began 17 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson