Mackinac

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late May – mid June
Record year: 200134
Trend: −34%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	34	11
2002	6	6
2003	32	17
2004	17	15
2005	9	6
2006	1	0
2007	1	0
2008	1	1
2009	19	10
2010	2	0
2011	4	2
2012	2	2
2013	2	2
2014	2	2
2015	0	0
2016	1	1
2017	1	1
2018	4	5
2019	1	3
2020	1	2
2021	0	6
2022	4	6
2023	1	2
2024	2	3
2025	3	5
2026	4	10

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
A dry month (21 mm)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun5°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed11°

Thu11°

Fri10°

Sat14°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.2 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~31 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – early September

Onset: late April
Peak: late May
End: early September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late May – mid June
31% of annual activity
mid April – early May
17% of annual activity
late August – mid September
15% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −34%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.09). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2001
34
17× the normal annual activity
peak 32× stronger than normal
2003
32
16× the normal annual activity
peak 19× stronger than normal
2004
17
8.7× the normal annual activity
peak 16× stronger than normal
2005
9
4.6× the normal annual activity
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
2009
19
9.4× the normal annual activity
peak 17× stronger than normal
season began 19 weeks late
2016
1
season began 23 weeks late
2020
1
season ended 18 weeks early
2023
1
season began 18 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson