Luce

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late July – late August
Record year: 2007245
Trend: −5%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1	0
2002	7	4
2003	3	4
2004	1	1
2005	1	0
2006	4	4
2007	245	95
2008	1	1
2009	2	1
2010	2	1
2011	6	4
2012	125	125
2013	0	0
2014	6	6
2015	12	12
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	0	1
2019	1	1
2020	0	0
2021	1	1
2022	1	1
2023	0	0
2024	1	3
2025	0	0
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

A dry month (22 mm)↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
Hot weather (10 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed11°

Thu11°

Fri10°

Sat13°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.6 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~24 May
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late May – early August

Onset: late May
Peak: early August
End: early August

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late July – late August
60% of annual activity
early May – early June
32% of annual activity
late September – early October
1% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.18). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.010): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

4

2007
245
245× the normal annual activity
peak 243× stronger than normal
2012
125
125× the normal annual activity
peak 123× stronger than normal
2015
12
peak 10× stronger than normal
2021
1
season ended 25 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson