Livingston

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – early May
Record year: 201610
Trend: +4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +97%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5	1
2002	5	1
2003	5	1
2004	5	0
2005	5	1
2006	4	1
2007	5	1
2008	7	3
2009	5	0
2010	5	2
2011	7	2
2012	5	5
2013	8	8
2014	5	5
2015	3	3
2016	10	10
2017	7	7
2018	6	11
2019	3	8
2020	3	8
2021	6	11
2022	7	17
2023	3	9
2024	5	14
2025	6	13
2026	1	2

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (13 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.3 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~29 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid September

Onset: late March
Peak: late March
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid March – early May
39% of annual activity
early August – late August
13% of annual activity
early September – mid September
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +4%/10Raw: +97%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.63).

Unusual years

14

2010
5
season ended 3 weeks late
2012
5
peak 4.1× stronger than normal
season ended 25 weeks early
2013
8
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
2015
3
season ended 19 weeks early
2016
10
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2017
7
season ended 8 weeks late
2019
3
season ended 4 weeks early
2020
3
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2021
6
season ended 5 weeks early
2022
7
season began 5 weeks late
2023
3
season began 17 weeks late
2024
5
season began 4 weeks early
2025
6
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 7 weeks late
2026
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 16 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson