Lenawee

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early March – mid April
Record year: 201520
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +102%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	0
2002	11	1
2003	10	0
2004	10	1
2005	11	1
2006	9	3
2007	10	1
2008	15	4
2009	10	0
2010	10	1
2011	11	3
2012	19	19
2013	2	2
2014	18	18
2015	20	20
2016	18	18
2017	9	9
2018	9	22
2019	9	16
2020	6	15
2021	14	27
2022	12	22
2023	13	26
2024	12	20
2025	8	26
2026	5	19

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon8°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri15°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.3 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~15 March
Peak ~5 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid March – late September

Onset: mid March
Peak: early April
End: late September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early March – mid April
32% of annual activity
early August – mid September
23% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +102%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 13.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.92).

Unusual years

13

2005
11
season ended 7 weeks late
2012
19
1.8× the normal annual activity
season ended 12 weeks late
2013
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks early
2014
18
1.7× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2015
20
1.9× the normal annual activity
2016
18
1.7× the normal annual activity
2017
9
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 10 weeks late
2019
9
season ended 3 weeks early
2020
6
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 21 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks late
2021
14
season ended 3 weeks early
2024
12
season ended 4 weeks early
2025
8
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
5
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson