Leelanau

Next 7 daysLow3%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early August – late October
Record year: 202418
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +98%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8	0
2002	7	0
2003	11	3
2004	9	1
2005	7	0
2006	7	1
2007	8	2
2008	10	2
2009	12	3
2010	7	0
2011	8	2
2012	14	14
2013	8	8
2014	5	5
2015	15	15
2016	8	8
2017	6	6
2018	5	12
2019	11	21
2020	5	17
2021	12	21
2022	4	9
2023	8	14
2024	18	38
2025	9	22
2026	8	21

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Light wind↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed10°

Thu10°

Fri10°

Sat12°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.3 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~3 May
Peak ~6 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early May – mid October

Onset: early May
Peak: early September
End: mid October

Critical windows

early August – late October
62% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +98%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 11.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

11

2012
14
season ended 4 weeks early
2013
8
season ended 4 weeks early
2016
8
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2017
6
season began 15 weeks late
2018
5
season began 8 weeks late
2020
5
season ended 6 weeks late
2021
12
season ended 5 weeks early
2022
4
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks early
2023
8
season ended 5 weeks early
2024
18
2.3× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks late
2026
8
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson