Lapeer

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – early May
Record year: 202413
Trend: +15%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +82%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	1
2002	6	0
2003	9	5
2004	5	1
2005	5	0
2006	4	2
2007	5	1
2008	5	0
2009	5	0
2010	6	1
2011	5	2
2012	6	6
2013	8	8
2014	6	6
2015	9	9
2016	1	1
2017	5	5
2018	0	4
2019	8	27
2020	11	34
2021	9	21
2022	6	12
2023	1	3
2024	13	20
2025	8	14
2026	4	9

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri14°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–2.3 · usual 0.0–0.6

Season

Starts ~15 March
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid March – early November

Onset: mid March
Peak: early May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid March – early May
36% of annual activity
mid September – late September
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +15%/10Raw: +82%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.3× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.31).

Unusual years

14

2003
9
season began 3 weeks late
2012
6
season ended 5 weeks early
2014
6
season ended 8 weeks late
2015
9
peak 4.5× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2016
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 32 weeks late
2017
5
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks late
2019
8
peak 4.5× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2020
11
2.0× the normal annual activity
2021
9
peak 4.5× stronger than normal
season ended 7 weeks early
2022
6
season began 7 weeks late
2023
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 26 weeks early
2024
13
2.3× the normal annual activity
peak 4.5× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
2025
8
peak 4.5× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 7 weeks early
2026
4
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson