Lake

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – mid June
Record year: 202557
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +44%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	0
2002	8	0
2003	5	1
2004	7	2
2005	10	4
2006	13	6
2007	5	1
2008	4	0
2009	6	3
2010	6	1
2011	17	7
2012	12	12
2013	5	5
2014	3	3
2015	4	4
2016	7	7
2017	22	22
2018	5	8
2019	5	16
2020	0	0
2021	53	68
2022	2	5
2023	2	4
2024	9	16
2025	57	125
2026	23	59

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu13°

Fri13°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.3 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early August

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid April
End: early August

Critical windows

late March – mid June
85% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +44%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2011 to 11.2× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

9

2012
12
season began 4 weeks late
2014
3
season began 3 weeks late
2017
22
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
2018
5
season began 3 weeks early
2021
53
8.5× the normal annual activity
peak 17× stronger than normal
2023
2
season began 4 weeks late
2024
9
season began 4 weeks late
2025
57
9.1× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
2026
23
3.7× the normal annual activity
peak 7.3× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson