Keweenaw

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early August – mid September
Record year: 202129
Trend: −76%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8	0
2002	7	0
2003	7	0
2004	7	0
2005	7	0
2006	7	0
2007	7	0
2008	7	0
2009	7	0
2010	7	0
2011	7	0
2012	4	4
2013	0	0
2014	0	0
2015	1	1
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	0	3
2019	0	0
2020	0	0
2021	29	47
2022	1	5
2023	0	0
2024	0	0
2025	0	0
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
Hot weather (11 °C)↑
Dry air (62%)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed12°

Thu12°

Fri11°

Sat13°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – early October

Onset: early April
Peak: late August
End: early October

Critical windows

early August – mid September
48% of annual activity
early April – early May
11% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −76%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.65). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p 0.003): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

4

2012
4
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
season began 24 weeks late
2015
1
season began 35 weeks late
2021
29
peak 37× stronger than normal
season ended 7 weeks early
2022
1
season ended 9 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson