Kent

Next 7 daysLow4%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late May
Record year: 202033
Trend: −2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +36%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12	8
2002	11	5
2003	10	13
2004	15	19
2005	16	8
2006	16	18
2007	18	15
2008	22	19
2009	15	17
2010	14	8
2011	15	20
2012	11	11
2013	12	12
2014	12	12
2015	13	13
2016	13	13
2017	15	15
2018	20	33
2019	9	18
2020	33	67
2021	21	55
2022	9	26
2023	11	21
2024	16	39
2025	9	20
2026	18	62

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun8°

Mon10°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.7 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–2.0 · usual 0.0–0.9

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~26 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – mid October

Onset: early April
Peak: late April
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – late May
50% of annual activity
early September – mid September
5% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −2%/10Raw: +36%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2018 to 2.6× its earlier level (p 0.005). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

10

2012
11
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 6 weeks early
2015
13
season began 4 weeks early
2016
13
season began 3 weeks late
2018
20
season ended 12 weeks early
2019
9
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 10 weeks early
2020
33
2.4× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2021
21
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 16 weeks early
2022
9
season began 3 weeks late
2023
11
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2025
9
season began 5 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson