Kalkaska

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – late May
Record year: 202423
Trend: −11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +36%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	3	0
2003	2	0
2004	2	0
2005	12	8
2006	2	0
2007	12	4
2008	6	2
2009	5	2
2010	13	6
2011	3	1
2012	2	2
2013	9	9
2014	10	10
2015	11	11
2016	2	2
2017	8	8
2018	1	3
2019	7	12
2020	2	2
2021	1	3
2022	1	2
2023	1	1
2024	23	42
2025	6	9
2026	8	13

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu13°

Fri12°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.8 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early October

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid April
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – late May
47% of annual activity
early July – mid July
10% of annual activity
late August – early September
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −11%/10Raw: +36%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 4.2× its earlier level (p 0.04). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

4

2012
2
season began 31 weeks late
season ended 13 weeks late
2014
10
season ended 16 weeks early
2024
23
peak 8.0× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2026
8
season ended 15 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson