Kalamazoo

Next 7 daysLow6%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early March – early May
Record year: 201839
Trend: +8%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +82%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12	0
2002	11	1
2003	10	4
2004	14	4
2005	15	6
2006	12	0
2007	20	5
2008	22	9
2009	24	11
2010	15	6
2011	12	4
2012	14	14
2013	10	10
2014	9	9
2015	8	8
2016	14	14
2017	10	10
2018	39	60
2019	13	24
2020	25	51
2021	12	24
2022	10	21
2023	17	33
2024	18	27
2025	20	38
2026	15	48

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun8°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri15°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.4 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–1.4 · usual 0.0–0.5

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – late September

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: late September

Critical windows

early March – early May
55% of annual activity
mid September – mid September
5% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +8%/10Raw: +82%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2016 to 5.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.63).

Unusual years

9

2007
20
season began 3 weeks late
2008
22
season began 3 weeks late
2014
9
season began 4 weeks late
2016
14
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks late
2017
10
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 13 weeks early
2018
39
2.9× the normal annual activity
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
season ended 21 weeks early
2020
25
season ended 10 weeks late
2024
18
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 15 weeks early
2026
15
season began 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson