Isabella

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late April
Record year: 200312
Trend: −17%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +63%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5	1
2002	4	1
2003	12	7
2004	6	3
2005	5	3
2006	8	4
2007	4	0
2008	4	1
2009	4	0
2010	5	1
2011	4	0
2012	7	7
2013	6	6
2014	8	8
2015	7	7
2016	3	3
2017	2	2
2018	6	15
2019	3	7
2020	4	10
2021	1	3
2022	5	7
2023	3	6
2024	3	8
2025	7	11
2026	5	14

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
A dry month (10 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.3 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – mid September

Onset: early April
Peak: mid April
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – late April
24% of annual activity
early May – late May
15% of annual activity
mid July – late July
11% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −17%/10Raw: +63%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.7× its earlier level (p 0.006). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.09).

Unusual years

11

2003
12
2.7× the normal annual activity
peak 3.7× stronger than normal
2012
7
season ended 11 weeks early
2013
6
season began 5 weeks late
2014
8
season began 6 weeks late
2017
2
season began 18 weeks late
2018
6
season began 3 weeks early
2020
4
season began 7 weeks late
2021
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2022
5
season began 5 weeks late
2023
3
season began 13 weeks late
2024
3
season began 5 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson