Iron

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – mid May
Record year: 200734
Trend: −75%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8	0
2002	7	0
2003	7	0
2004	7	1
2005	7	0
2006	7	0
2007	34	9
2008	7	0
2009	7	1
2010	11	2
2011	7	1
2012	0	0
2013	0	0
2014	0	0
2015	1	1
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	0	0
2019	0	0
2020	2	4
2021	0	0
2022	0	0
2023	3	5
2024	0	2
2025	0	1
2026	1	10

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
A dry month (32 mm)↑
Hot weather (9 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun5°

Mon8°

Tue10°

Wed10°

Thu8°

Fri11°

Sat11°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.1 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – late September

Onset: early April
Peak: early May
End: late September

Critical windows

late March – mid May
43% of annual activity
early June – late June
7% of annual activity
early September – mid September
5% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −75%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.82). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

5

2007
34
peak 34× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks early
2015
1
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 18 weeks early
2020
2
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2023
3
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 16 weeks early
2026
1
season began 26 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson