Iosco

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – mid June
Record year: 202159
Trend: +15%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +42%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	4
2002	5	0
2003	3	1
2004	3	0
2005	3	0
2006	4	6
2007	2	1
2008	3	1
2009	2	7
2010	7	4
2011	2	2
2012	2	2
2013	7	7
2014	5	5
2015	6	6
2016	5	5
2017	10	10
2018	17	54
2019	15	34
2020	2	4
2021	59	120
2022	1	2
2023	4	11
2024	8	24
2025	6	13
2026	17	54

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (13 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon10°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–1.3 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – early September

Onset: early April
Peak: mid April
End: early September

Critical windows

late March – mid June
81% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +15%/10Raw: +42%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 9.7× its earlier level (p 0.005). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.24).

Unusual years

5

2012
2
season ended 27 weeks early
2020
2
season began 12 weeks late
2021
59
13× the normal annual activity
peak 19× stronger than normal
2022
1
season began 10 weeks late
2025
6
season began 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson