Ingham

Next 7 daysLow8%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – early May
Record year: 200816
Trend: −2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +90%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	0
2002	6	0
2003	7	2
2004	6	0
2005	9	3
2006	6	1
2007	8	2
2008	16	6
2009	6	0
2010	13	4
2011	6	0
2012	9	9
2013	10	10
2014	3	3
2015	14	14
2016	6	6
2017	4	4
2018	1	3
2019	1	2
2020	4	7
2021	8	13
2022	5	9
2023	8	17
2024	15	23
2025	7	14
2026	10	22

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.2 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~5 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid October

Onset: late March
Peak: early April
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid March – early May
44% of annual activity
mid October – late October
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −2%/10Raw: +90%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.8× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

12

2008
16
2.6× the normal annual activity
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2010
13
2.0× the normal annual activity
2012
9
season ended 6 weeks late
2015
14
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 4.5× stronger than normal
season ended 6 weeks early
2017
4
season ended 6 weeks early
2018
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 25 weeks early
2019
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 26 weeks early
2020
4
season began 4 weeks late
2021
8
season ended 16 weeks early
2024
15
2.4× the normal annual activity
2025
7
season began 3 weeks early
2026
10
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson