Houghton

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late May – mid June
Record year: 20254
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +95%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1	0
2002	1	0
2003	1	0
2004	1	0
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	1	0
2008	1	0
2009	2	0
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	0	0
2013	1	1
2014	0	0
2015	1	1
2016	0	0
2017	3	3
2018	2	3
2019	2	2
2020	2	2
2021	0	1
2022	1	3
2023	2	5
2024	2	2
2025	4	8
2026	1	3

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
Hot weather (11 °C)↑
A dry month (76 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon10°

Tue11°

Wed11°

Thu10°

Fri12°

Sat13°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.3 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~31 May
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late May – early November

Onset: late May
Peak: late August
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late May – mid June
14% of annual activity
early August – late August
14% of annual activity
mid September – late September
14% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +95%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 25.8× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.10).

Unusual years

11

2013
1
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season began 25 weeks late
2015
1
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season began 8 weeks early
season ended 33 weeks early
2017
3
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 9.3× stronger than normal
season ended 6 weeks early
2018
2
peak 9.3× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2019
2
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season began 11 weeks late
2020
2
peak 9.3× stronger than normal
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks early
2022
1
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season began 23 weeks late
2023
2
peak 9.3× stronger than normal
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2024
2
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season ended 11 weeks early
2025
4
2.9× the normal annual activity
peak 9.3× stronger than normal
season ended 6 weeks early
2026
1
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season began 19 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson