Hillsdale

Next 7 daysLow2%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early March – late May
Record year: 201324
Trend: −6%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +73%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	0
2002	9	1
2003	10	1
2004	8	0
2005	13	4
2006	8	0
2007	8	0
2008	11	2
2009	18	7
2010	17	5
2011	8	0
2012	17	17
2013	24	24
2014	14	14
2015	12	12
2016	8	8
2017	8	8
2018	20	30
2019	5	7
2020	2	9
2021	16	30
2022	5	11
2023	8	12
2024	12	23
2025	8	15
2026	6	20

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon8°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 1.1

likely 0.0–2.9 · usual 0.0–0.6

Season

Starts ~15 March
Peak ~5 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid March – mid September

Onset: mid March
Peak: early April
End: mid September

Critical windows

early March – late May
61% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −6%/10Raw: +73%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.16).

Unusual years

10

2009
18
1.8× the normal annual activity
2013
24
2.5× the normal annual activity
2017
8
season ended 12 weeks late
2018
20
2.0× the normal annual activity
season ended 17 weeks early
2019
5
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 24 weeks early
2020
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks late
2022
5
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 14 weeks early
2024
12
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 19 weeks early
2025
8
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 26 weeks early
2026
6
season ended 21 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson